Bangladesh must prepare for hybrid warfare

Bangladesh needs to take protective measures and formulate a doctrine in order to address the growing threat of hybrid warfare amid the country’s technological advancement, said the speakers at a roundtable Sunday morning.

The upcoming introduction of critical new infrastructure, such as the metro rail and the Rooppur nuclear power plant, will increase the country’s vulnerability to cybercrime and other hybrid warfare strategies. Military education and training is still based on information gleaned 30-40 years ago, and it needs to be radically reworked to address hybrid threats, they added.

The speakers were deliberating at a roundtable, titled “Changing Nature of Conflict: Fighting Hybrid War in the 21st Century”, organized by leading English daily Dhaka Tribune and Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) at a Dhaka hotel as part of a series of discussions on important national and international issues. 

BIPSS President Maj Gen (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman moderated the roundtable while Dhaka Tribune Editor Zafar Sobhan delivered the final remarks. The roundtable brought together academics, local and foreign security experts, diplomats, former and serving law enforcement agency officials, journalists, and university students.

Hybrid warfare is a theory of military strategy and was first proposed by Frank Hoffman, who served as a research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington DC. Hybrid warfare employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare, and cyber warfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, law fare and foreign electoral intervention. By combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to avoid attribution or retribution.

The concept of hybrid warfare has been criticized by a number of academics and practitioners due to its alleged vagueness, its disputed constitutive elements, and its alleged historical distortions. 

BIPSS Research Fellow Shafqat Munir, who heads the Bangladesh Centre for Terrorism Research (BCTR), former ambassador and distinguished expert at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Aviation and Aerospace University (BSMRAAU) Lt Gen (Retd) ATM Zahirul Alam, and former commandant of the National Defence College Group Captain Zahidul Islam Khan, BSMRAAU, spoke at the event as panellists. 

The moderator and the panellists described the definition, variables and domains of hybrid war and they also discussed how to combat these threats in the very first discussion on this topic in Bangladesh so far. 

“Hybrid Wars incorporates a range of different modes of warfare, including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics and formations, terrorist acts including indiscriminate violence and coercion, and criminal disorder. It’s a combination of activities such as disinformation, economic manipulation, uses of proxies and insurgence, diplomatic pressure, military action, legal action…so, therefore, hybrid warfare is also a complex warfare,” BIPSS President Maj Gen (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman said at the beginning of the discussion. 

“The ongoing Syria crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war are classic examples of hybrid warfare,” said Lt Gen (Retd) ATM Zahirul Alam in his speech. 

Atm Zahirul Alam Mehedi Hasan/Dhaka Tribune

“In Bangladesh, we are not as cyber vulnerable as some other developed countries, but the reality is we are going to be as cyber vulnerable as any other country because the new systems and infrastructure that we are developing are going to be more cyber vulnerable than ever before. For example, the metro rail is coming, which is essentially dependent on cyber systems for smooth operations. This is something we have to keep in mind: Our cyber security has to be strong. Unless our cyber security is strong, we will be vulnerable when hybrid attacks are launched,” said Shafqat Munir. 

Mr Safqat Munir Mehedi Hasan/Dhaka Tribune

Former Foreign Secretary Md Touhid Hossain said: “The Bangladesh Liberation War, at least till September, was a hybrid war. Bangladesh at this moment is also a victim of a hybrid war. Myanmar has sent refugees to us. For the economic strategy, they have very important friends like China, Russia, Japan and in the West, and nobody wants to take action against Myanmar.”  

Touhid Hossain Mehedi Hasan/Dhaka Tribune

Dhaka University teacher Tanvir Habib said: “Hybrid warfare is a long-term strategy and it is also cost effective.” 

Tanvir Habib Mehedi Hasan/Dhaka Tribune

Ayesha Kabir, Consulting Editor of Prothom Alo focused on the importance of forming an institution on hybrid warfare in Bangladesh and said: “The media should be aware of hybrid war,” 

Ayesha Kabir Mehedi Hasan/Dhaka Tribune

Muhammad Sanwar Hossain, SP (operations) of the anti-terrorism unit of police, said: “I think hybrid warfare is becoming closely linked with terrorism. This could lead to more vulnerability in the future. I think it’s time to start preparing for the future.” 

Muhammad Sanwar Hossain Mehedi Hasan/Dhaka Tribune

In the concluding speech, Dhaka Tribune Editor Zafar Sobhan said: “We live in a time when cyber warfare on technological advancements make the waging of hybrid war; make the waging of a multimodal war far more devastating than perhaps would have been possible a century ago, or even several decades ago. That’s why we have to be absolutely alive to the vulnerabilities. 

“What does this mean for Bangladesh? I think what we have learned is that Bangladesh is extraordinarily vulnerable, and the question is, given this vulnerability, what kind of preparation have we taken as a nation? Are we focusing sufficiently to combat this liability?” he added.

The Dhaka Tribune editor further said: “I think the real takeaway for me is that there’s so much work to be done in Bangladesh. There are many areas of vulnerability. Even beyond the technological vulnerability, I think a number of speakers among the panellists have mentioned this, the real vulnerability we have here in Bangladesh, which I think is in danger of exploitation, is our lack of unity as a society. This is not unique to Bangladesh, all countries in the world have similar problems,” he added.

Zafar Sobhan Mehedi Hasan/Dhaka Tribune