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Speakers at a discussion have said the concept of warfare is no longer contained between traditional military confrontations; rather it has stretched far beyond the domains of bombs and guns, and expanded into domains such as media, economy and, most prominently, the digital sphere.
Such an important phenomenon, they said, needs to be brought to the limelight to not only get a better understanding of the phenomenon, but also to avert any dangers that may occur due to this.
Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, President of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) harboured and Zafar Sobhan, Editor of Dhaka Tribune came up with similar sentiments in their opening remarks at the BIPSS-Dhaka Tribune Roundtable titled, “Changing Nature of Conflict: Fighting Hybrid War in the 21st Century” which was held on Sunday at a Dhaka hotel.
The roundtable was attended by diplomats, scholars, security experts, and youth representatives from various disciplines.
Gen Munir said the hybrid war denotes a new time of direct and indirect conflict, with consequences spanning from short term, medium term to long term, often times impossible to comprehend.
Historically, he said, hybrid war has existed for centuries, what has changed is the articulation and sophisticated nature of application of hybrid techniques.
The expert talked about the inception of hybrid warfare, with the proponents of the concept being General James N. Mattis and Frank Hoffman.
Quoting Frank Hoffman, he further elaborated that, hybrid war encompasses a number of factors, including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics, terrorist tactics, coercions etc.
Hybrid warfare is a combination of a multiple activities, notably disinformation, economic manipulation, use of insurgents towards implementing pressure, military actions, and legal actions. It may also include non-state actors with advanced military capabilities.
He cited various recent instances as examples, citing the Israel-Lebanon conflict as one in which Hezbollah acted as a non-state actor. He went on to say that warfare was becoming too smart and complex, but that there was a good combination of political and military strength.
It is non-kinetic warfare, and only the military can now use it.
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The first keynote speaker, Lt Gen Zahirul Alam (retd), said the continuing violence in Syria and the war in Russia and Ukraine as examples.
He added that there were no indication of a resolution to the issues in Palestine, Syria, Libra, or Ukraine.
“In fact, we have not given much thought to how to get out of hybrid warfare. The United Nations has proven to be ineffective in combatting hybrid war. This is a weakness in the global community. UN is helpless when the big powers are involved. The big powers are either creating hybrid warfare or can be blamed for fanning the flames in their own interests.”
The second key note speaker of the session, Shafqat Munir, head of Bangladesh Centre for Terrorism Research and Senior Research Fellow at BIPSS, talked about the overall vagueness of hybrid warfare.
He went on to explain that economic coercion can be used as a tactic through media campaigns, social media campaigns, and loans to make a nation weak.
Hybrid warfare also uses disinformation and misinformation as effective weapons, Shafqat said, adding that the public is exposed to an alternate reality, and they begin to take fake news seriously. “The necessity to be vigilant of fake news is therefore obvious.”
He further continued by saying that hybrid warfare also makes use of deception. When hybrid warfare assumes political overtones, it can provide funding to covert subversive organizations, use a number of schisms, sway electoral processes, and other things.
He went on to assert that hybrid threats in the economic realm comprised protracted insurgencies, cyber-warfare, and other expressions.
Former dean of the faculty of science, social science, and liberal arts at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Aviation and Aerospace University, Group Captain Zahidul Islam Khan (retd.), discussed how non-rational and irrational forces had previously prevailed over rational ones, but that things had changed in the 20th century.
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Group Captain Zahidul Islam (retd) explained that the integration of all national power forces was necessary to effectively wage a hybrid war.
Hybrid wars frequently lasted a long time, so developing a strategy to combat them required a doctrine, he said, adding that “We need to develop our own doctrine to tackle hybrid war; we must have a systemic and well integrated strategy to counter hybrid warfare.”
Zafar Sobhan said they have always experienced hybrid conflict to some extent.
He said hybrid warfare is more destructive than ever thanks to cyber warfare and technological breakthroughs.
“We still have a ways to go. Bangladesh must be aware of these weaknesses. The vulnerabilities are only likely to increase as we transition to a more cyber connected world,” he said.
Zafar also said, “Technology alone won’t render us vulnerable; our society’s divisions and profound schisms also play a role. To the extent that we are together, we can overcome the threats we face, thus we need to develop a mindset that emphasizes what keeps us together.”
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